“It is quite possible that Russia will redouble its efforts in Ukraine because other powers are distracted. And it's quite possible that China may decide to make a move against Taiwan because again, other powers are distracted.”
Oxford historian Margaret McMillan warns that the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict carries genuine World War III risk — not because anyone is planning one, but because history shows wars most often spiral through miscalculation, pride, and accident rather than intent. She maps the specific escalation triggers to watch: Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, China exploiting Western distraction to move on Taiwan, and leaders like Netanyahu or Iran's hardliners refusing to back down to save face. The episode is worth your time because McMillan pairs the alarming diagnosis with a concrete de-escalation playbook drawn from Cold War close calls — including a near-nuclear exchange in 1983 that Reagan and Thatcher defused with a phone call — arguing that direct communication and confidence-building measures, not military dominance, are what actually prevent wars from becoming world wars.
Hosts Asma Khalid and Tristan Redman introduce a bonus episode of The Global Story podcast, discussing shifting world order and how US politics both cause and reflect global upheaval.
“The world order is shifting. Old alliances are fraying and new ones are emerging. Some of this turbulence can be traced to decisions made in the United States, but the US isn't just a cause of the upheaval. Its politics are also a symptom of it.”
This quote offers a profound take on global geopolitical shifts, positing US internal politics as both a cause and a symptom of wider international instability, challenging conventional views.