Who Is Winning the War in Iran?

Synopsis

Three weeks into a US-Israel air campaign that has destroyed 90% of Iran's missile capacity, killed its top intelligence and security chiefs, and struck over 7,800 targets, Iran is winning the economic war by choking the Strait of Hormuz with mines, missiles, and speedboats — effectively holding the global economy hostage with a fraction of its original military strength. NYT defense correspondent Eric Schmidt lays out why Trump's exit options range from bad to catastrophic: tanker escort convoys risk American sailors' lives, seizing Iran's main oil island requires storming a heavily defended coastline with no element of surprise, extracting enriched uranium from underground bunkers could trigger a radioactive disaster, and declaring victory leaves a hardened, decentralized regime still capable of global terror strikes. If you make decisions in any industry touched by global supply chains, energy markets, or geopolitical risk, this is the clearest-eyed breakdown available of why this conflict has no clean ending — and why the next few weeks could determine whether a contained military operation becomes something far larger.

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