“If at the end of the day we're talking about a conflict that is a matter of one month or something like that, then I think the case for transitory is stronger.”
Robin Brooks
6:08The current Middle East war has triggered an oil supply shock three times larger than the 1973 OPEC embargo — removing roughly 15 million barrels per day from global markets — and the IEA says the damage already exceeds any energy crisis in modern history. Brookings senior fellow Robin Brooks warns that markets are dangerously underpricing long-term disruption by betting on a quick resolution, raising the specter of 1970s-style stagflation, particularly for energy-import-dependent economies in Asia and Europe. The episode also traces two underreported second-order consequences for business: maxed-out U.S. LNG export capacity that could accelerate AI data center investment stateside, and an emerging helium supply crunch threatening semiconductor chip production in South Korea and Taiwan.
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