Fred Kagan

“The operation that everyone is talking about, of course, is seizing Kharg Island, which is Iran's oil terminus... That would be economically crippling to Iran because... the seizure of Kharg Island would do enormous damage to the regime's ability to receive income and continue to pay its supporters.”

Proposes a highly aggressive military action with direct economic consequences for a geopolitical rival, sparking debate on intervention and economic warfare.

Fred Kagan

“A lot of people have been very quick to say there hasn't been an uprising yet, therefore there won't be an uprising. A successful uprising is a very low probability event, but it's really premature to make a call about that.”

It offers a nuanced perspective on the feasibility of internal uprisings during conflict, cautioning against premature conclusions while acknowledging low probabilities.

Fred Kagan

“The thing that you need to keep in mind is that what the US and Israel are doing right now is the sensible thing, which is you continue to execute your campaign plan, not limited, not modified, not restricted, and while you are seeking diplomatic resolution on your terms. And you should especially do that if you have reason to think that the military situation will change in your favor by continuing to execute your plan.”

This quote articulates a bold strategic principle that advocates for unwavering military pressure even during diplomacy, challenging conventional notions of de-escalation.

Fred Kagan

“I don't think that [the missile strike] is likely to affect our ability to conduct the campaign. It's obviously very expensive damage... But I don't have any reason to think that this is going to compromise our ability to continue to fight the war.”

This quote provides a direct, confident assessment of a major military power's resilience in the face of attack, challenging assumptions about its vulnerability or the overall impact of enemy actions.

Fred Kagan